Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
